Elias Pettersson’s Season Was Lucky, but He’s Still a Favorite for the 2019 Calder Trophy

Elias Pettersson’s season was many things. Award-winning, record-breaking, historic. At 19, the Vancouver Canucks prospect led Sweden’s top league in points and broke the league’s record for points by a teenager. His 2017-18 season has put him atop early Rookie of the Year projections for next year (like this one and this one).

But Pettersson’s season was also something else: unsustainably lucky.

Of course, his season would’ve been incredible even without luck. If Pettersson’s goal totals were cut in half, he’d still be in the top 5 all-time for points by a teenager. The problem is that without his incredible luck, Pettersson’s goal totals really would have been cut in half.

In hockey— or at least in the NHL —a player’s skill rarely affects the percentage of their shots that become goals. Most Forwards’ shooting percentages eventually balance out to somewhere near 10%. Shooting rates are even lower in the Swedish Hockey League, which makes it all the more ludicrous that Pettersson’s Sh% was 21.24% this season.

Among SHL players with at least 40 games played in a given season, that is the highest shooting percentage in 11 years. Elias Pettersson’s 2017-18 season is all alone on a list that doesn’t indicate sustained dominance.

Pettersson’s sh% was also among the highest in his league during 2016-17, and SHL hockey is somewhat different from NHL hockey, so it’s possible that some of this comes down to skill. Most of it, however, has to be luck.

Still, Pettersson’s season was historically productive, and based on production alone he’d be be the clear Calder favorite. Production is not the only piece of the puzzle, however, and Pettersson’s lack of muscle raises doubts about his readiness for the ultra-physical NHL.

In December, the 6’2” Pettersson told Sportsnet that he weighed 76 kilograms (167.5 pounds). Unless Pettersson gains serious weight over the summer, he will become the only skater in the NHL’s decades of records who is over 6’1” and under 175 lbs. Pettersson is still skinny in a way that few successful NHLers are, and he will be at a disadvantage.

Pettersson’s success will also depend on his place in the Canucks roster.

With Thomas Vanek and both Sedin twins gone, Pettersson should be used on Vancouver’s 1st Power Play unit. Pettersson has wonderful shot that’s deadly on the Power Play, and he could score 20-25 PP points.

From there, Pettersson would probably need 35-40 even strength points to contend for the Calder. For reference, 111 Forwards scored at least 35 even strength points this season, and 79 of them scored at least 40. This is attainable for Pettersson, since he’s likely to take Sven Baertchi’s spot on the Brock Boeser – Bo Horvat line. (Pettersson may be listed as a Center, but he wasn’t in the top 5 on his team for faceoffs taken in 2016-17 or 2017-18)

Pettersson’s excellent season was aided by good luck, but he’s still a player of rare talent. He will have the skills and the opportunity to contend for Rookie of the Year, but his weight prevents him from being the clear-cut favorite.